Area NWS Forecast Discussion
178
FXUS62 KILM 231404
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1004 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the North Carolina
coast tonight. Canadian high pressure will push a cold front
across the coast Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop along
the Gulf Coast Thursday, bringing good rain chances to the
Carolinas Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 AM Tuesday...Morning surface analysis shows high
pressure centered over the northern plains, with low pressure
over the Great Lakes region. The result is a low-level northeasterly
flow regime across the eastern Carolinas. KLTX VWP and visible
satellite imagery indicate that the broken CU along the coast
are elevated just above this cool surface layer, and this
moisture is progged to linger along the coast through most of
the afternoon. Otherwise, moisture is confined mainly around
200-300 mb, and associated cirrus will persist until late
afternoon. By 21Z-00Z, moisture will begin to push south as
mid/upper trough swings across the northeast CONUS. The
inherited forecast maintained PoPs across the far south and east
forecast domain, but have tweaked just a bit based on radar
trends and hi-res guidance to maintain a slight chance of a
light shower along the coast through midday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will be the main
forecast feature across the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.
Breezy north winds will result in cooler highs across the region
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is near to slightly below
normal for late October. Increasing pressure gradient Thursday
afternoon and evening with approaching surface low pressure
systems from the south will bring breezy wind gusts up to 25 mph
for some locations and chances for rain as moisture ahead of
the low pushes northward. Latest model profile trends are fairly
stable with a lack of instability, although a rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out offshore Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...A shortwave will drop across the OH Valley
from the Midwest during Thursday night into Friday. As the
shortwave moves eastward low pressure will move out of the
northeast Gulf of Mexico and intensify as it treks near the
Carolina coast late Friday into Saturday. The low will create
breezy conditions and provide the area with a very good chance
of rainfall. The position of the low just off the coast will
also lock in below normal temperatures. Conditions will improve
during Sunday then another cold front will move across the area
during Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...Some VFR stratocu is expected this morning, broken at
times through the morning hours. Light winds, but mainly from a
westerly direction with low pressure to our north. Do not think fog
will be a factor tonight, but will revisit with next set of TAFs.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Thur, except for low confidence MVFR
cigs at the coastal terminals Tue night as a cold front moves
through. MVFR/IFR/RA/Windy Fri/Sat morn. MVFR developing Sat
aftn/evng.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 10 AM Tuesday...A very weak pressure field across the
waters is resulting in seas 1-2 feet and winds 10 knots or less,
and somewhat variable between west and north. A few brief, light
showers will be possible as moisture overruns the shallow
surface "cool" airmass, which is in place west of a weak surface
trough further offshore.

High pressure starts to build in from the NW beginning about
03Z turning winds to NW and kicking speeds up into the 10-15kt
range. Seas will be slow to respond at first but will gradually
start to build.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues with breezy north
offshore winds producing between 15 and 20 kt winds with gusts
approaching 25 kts starting Tuesday night and continuing Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Wave heights between 3 and 5 feet, in
combination with wind gusts, will create conditions that may be
hazardous for small craft navigating the off shore waters during
the short term period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure will ridge south across the waters
Thursday. NE-E flow will increase during Friday as an area of low
pressure moves from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the adjacent
Carolina waters. The low will exit during Friday night into Saturday
allowing the flow to back to a northwesterly direction Saturday. The
flow will weaken during the afternoon Saturday as the pressure gradient
subsides with the passage of the low. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be required Friday morning through Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB/CRM
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MCK

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion