Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 220251
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
951 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure offshore from the Carolina coasts this morning
will further intensify as it accelerates away from the mainland
this afternoon through Saturday. Cold and dry Canadian high
pressure will build in and dominate this weekend. A warm front
will lift across the area early Monday bringing milder
temperatures through Tuesday. A cold front will push across the
region late Tuesday with cold and dry high pressure following
for the mid week period.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary with the 10pm update...a Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect until 7am.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Below normal temps and clear skies to dominate through Saturday
night. High pressure at the surface builds in by tomorrow and
remains overhead throughout the near term period, with precipitable
water values remaining less than 0.2". Current lingering clouds over
coastal SE NC counties will clear out by early this evening. Main
story will be how low temps will get tonight. ECM and GFS MOS
guidance have lows dropping to low 20s tonight with decoupling at
the surface. Other guidance, such as the RAP, HRRR, and NAM, keep a
shallow mixed layer at the surface due to elevated boundary winds,
with lows staying in the upper 20s/near 30 degrees. Best chance for
decoupling will be for our far NW and N areas as the pressure
gradient relaxes overnight and BL winds begin to weaken towards
morning. Leaning more towards the warmer, but still freezing,
solution for most of our area, but have only raised lows a couple of
degrees as there`s still a chance could see lows drop fast
overnight. Beyond that, highs Saturday will be in the low to mid
50s, with lows Saturday night dropping to just below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to allow dry weather for Sunday with
temperatures warming as southerly winds return to the Carolinas.  A
warm approaches the region Monday and brings high temperatures back
into the 60s with increasing chances for rain.  With little to no
instability, no thunder is expected.  Plenty of atmospheric moisture
will be available, and moderate to heavy rain at times as front
passes Monday night.  Early indications show between 0.25" and 0.50"
of rain expected Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold frontal passage in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe will bring
continued chances for light to moderate rainfall across the region.
Warm air sector ahead of the front could see afternoon high
temperatures rise into the upper 60s to near 70 for some locations,
which is about 10 degrees above normal for late February.  After the
frontal passage, a return to dry conditions can be anticipated late
next week with afternoon high temperatures returning to the low to
mid 50s, which is slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. We still see a few northerly
gusts around 25 mph, but these gusts will settle down by the
evening. High pressure will dominate.

Extended Outlook...VFR will persist through the weekend as cold, dry
Canadian high pressure prevails. Flight restrictions will likely
return on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Saturday Night:
Small Craft Advisory conditions likely tonight into early
tomorrow morning. North winds around 25kts with gusts in the
low 30s over the next few hours will decrease into tonight, with
winds around 15 kts gusts to 20 by morning and N winds less
than 10 kts by late tomorrow afternoon through Saturday night.
Seas 5 to 7 ft tonight decrease to 4-5 ft Saturday and lower
further to 3-4 ft Saturday night, predominantly an 11s easterly
swell.

Saturday Night through Friday:
Quiet conditions for Sunday and Monday with waves around 2 to 3
feet from the east around 10 to 12 seconds. Waves steadily
increase into Tuesday as the next series of fronts approach the
offshore waters. Waves 4 to 7 feet possible with continued light
easterly swell around 10 to 12 seconds and wind waves from the
south at between 6 and 8 seconds Tuesday through the end of next
week. The next chances for small craft concerns would be early
to the middle of next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...MAS/IGB
MARINE...DCH/VAO

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion