Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 281100
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
700 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm weather will continue until a cold front brings some
slightly cooler weather by Monday. Rain arrives with low
pressure on Tuesday followed by a trend towards slightly cool
weather later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Marine dense fog advisory will expire for SC coastal waters at 7 AM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure aloft will keep stable conditions across the
region with warm summer-like temperatures for the Carolinas.
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s to near 90 for some
locations Saturday and Sunday are well above the normal readings in
the upper 60s to lower 70s for late March.  Breezy afternoon
conditions with gusts into the 20 mph range with good surface
heating, mixing, and a likely sea breeze to form with the strong
contrast in temperatures between land and sea this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Still very warm  early Sunday night though some cooler and less
humid air will filter in towards daybreak Monday behind a moisture-
starved cold front. Monday will not be as hot as the previous days
but still solidly above climatology as high pressure only weakly
builds behind the boundary. The high pulls back in response to low
pressure developing over the MS valley Monday night. A developing
warm front ahead of this low will spread cloud cover into the region
but the rain will hold off until the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain chances ramp up to near certain fairly quickly on Tuesday. A
healthy mid level system crossing the OH valley will have a multi-
centered surface reflection displaced to its south. We don`t seem to
end up in the warm sector of any of the lows and the one that comes
to dominate passes to our south. This isn`t very favorable for
thunder as advertised in the forecast so have removed deep
convection mention and only going with showers. The low moves away
on Wednesday but enough moisture lingers in the presence of the
lagging upper wave for some low end chance rain chances.  The long
term will end with slightly cooler than normal temperatures with low
rain chances possibly returning on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some IFR stratus at CRE should be short lived this morning. Another
unseasonably warm day today with southwest flow. Temperatures will
quickly rise into the 80s by midday, possibly blunted by the sea
breeze resultant this afternoon along the coast.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR through Monday. Flight
restrictions are possible mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong chances for marine fog as warm moist air moves across the
still chilly coastal waters.  Fog is expected to dissipate early to
mid morning today, but then returning tonight into Sunday morning.
Other than visibility reductions, waves 2 to 4 feet from the
southwest at 5 seconds for the next 36 hours with southwest winds 15
to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts at times during the afternoon
hours.

A cold front crosses the area Sunday night into Monday with high
pressure only weakly building in behind it. Wind will veer slightly
but remain offshore and wind speeds drop behind the front due to the
lack of a more normal post-frontal pressure advection. Wind remains
light and continues to veer Tuesday, this time considerably. This is
in response to low pressure developing well to our west and a warm
front developing out ahead of it. The least certainty regarding wind
and seas comes Wednesday. Low pressure, possibly with multiple
centers will be moving through. A more consolidated low as portrayed
in some guidance could mean near advisory conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MCK
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/MBB

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion