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Hurricane EARL Public Advisory Number 36
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT32 KNHC 030855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 ...CENTER OF EARL PASSES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 74.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA...AND FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ABLEMARLE SOUND. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND * NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER * STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER * CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 41001 LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 72 MPH...115 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane EARL Forecast/Advisory Number 36
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT22 KNHC 030849 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA...AND FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ABLEMARLE SOUND. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND * NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER * STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE * THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC * NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER * CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 74.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 300SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 74.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.8N 72.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 41.6N 68.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 45.9N 64.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 50.7N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 74.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 36
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT42 KNHC 030911 TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE EYE BECOMING INDISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT ABOUT 05Z. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 03Z WERE 118 KT...WHILE THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS NEAR THAT TIME WERE 83 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...AND TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015-020 AT ABOUT 16 KT. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 36 HR AS EARL UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST EARL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE COD...AND ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE ARE DECREASING...EARL CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE WITH THE WIND RADII EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON ASCAT DATA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 35.3N 74.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 37.8N 72.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 41.6N 68.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 45.9N 64.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 50.7N 60.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
000
FONT12 KNHC 030855
PWSAT2
HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 5 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X X 6 15 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 2 26 56 46 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 98 74 36 35 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 49 57 26 24 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 40 12 7 6 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 8 5 2 3 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 1 X X 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85KT 75KT 55KT 45KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 11(11) 47(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 45(45) 17(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 25(25) 31(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
HALIFAX NS 34 X 4( 4) 73(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 33(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 22(22) 71(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X 1( 1) 62(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
MONCTON NB 34 X 1( 1) 67(68) 7(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) 33(33) 7(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ST JOHN NB 34 X 8( 8) 68(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 39(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 13(13) 56(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 20(20) 34(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X 18(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X 26(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
PORTLAND ME 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BOSTON MA 34 3 48(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
BOSTON MA 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HYANNIS MA 34 6 82(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
HYANNIS MA 50 X 53(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
HYANNIS MA 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
NANTUCKET MA 34 8 89(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 75(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 7 57(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
HARTFORD CT 34 6 20(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
MONTAUK POINT 34 11 57(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NEW YORK CITY 34 13 11(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
NEWARK NJ 34 9 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
TRENTON NJ 34 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 30 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
BALTIMORE MD 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
DOVER DE 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WASHINGTON DC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 50 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
RICHMOND VA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NORFOLK VA 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
RALEIGH NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane EARL Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:31:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:09:31 GMT
Hurricane EARL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:07:32 GMT
Hurricane Local Statement for Portland, ME
Issued at 617 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA
Issued at 610 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Caribou, ME
Issued at 549 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Wakefield, VA
Issued at 549 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Boston, MA
Issued at 546 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Issued at 239 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for New York City, NY
Issued at 155 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Wilmington, NC
Issued at 1055 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
Hurricane EARL 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:30:24 GMT
Hurricane EARL Best Track Information (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:49:38 GMT
Hurricane EARL Best Track Information (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:49:38 GMT
Hurricane EARL Forecast Information (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:49:39 GMT
Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:10:06 GMT
Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:10:12 GMT
Hurricane EARL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:08:00 GMT
Hurricane EARL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:08:41 GMT
Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT33 KNHC 030831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010 ...FIONA MOVING NORTHWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 66.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. FIONA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast/Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT23 KNHC 030831 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 66.7W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 66.7W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.8N 66.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 34.2N 63.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.4N 62.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 41.5N 58.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 66.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010
000 WTNT43 KNHC 030832 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010 FIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 3-HR AVERAGE ADT OF T3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. FIONA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF FIONA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 28.1N 66.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 29.8N 66.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 65.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 34.2N 63.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 36.4N 62.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 41.5N 58.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
000
FONT13 KNHC 030831
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 3 6 9 21 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 15 21 36 31 36 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 83 73 54 54 38 NA NA
HURRICANE 1 4 4 6 5 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 3 5 4 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT 25KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BERMUDA 34 1 35(36) 9(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
BERMUDA 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:43:48 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:09:59 GMT
Tropical Storm FIONA 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:43:00 GMT
Tropical Storm FIONA Best Track Information (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:31:09 GMT
Tropical Storm FIONA Best Track Information (.kmz)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:31:09 GMT
Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Information (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:31:09 GMT
Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:10:06 GMT
Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
GIS Data last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:10:12 GMT
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 030544
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 360
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
