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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: ILM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Wilmington, NC
County Warning Area [CWA]: ILM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Wilmington, NC
000 FXUS62 KILM 060236 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 930 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...MAIN EMPHASIS WILL BE THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAS NOW DROPPED TO JUST NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. 1K TO 8H THICKNESSES DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF IN THE 1320-1336 RANGE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. 8H TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +4 TO +6 CELSIUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WHICH INDICATES A RATHER SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. 8H TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0 TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FA...JUST BARELY REACHING THE NC-VA BORDER BY DAYBREAK PER LATEST NAM MODEL RUN. A LOW OVERCAST CLOUD DECK WILL GOVERN MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHTS SKY CONDITION. THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AS SEEN WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY TRENDS...COULD RESULT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ILM CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S N PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA ...TO MID 40S S PORTIONS. LATEST OBS AND MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK WAVE OFF THE FL COAST MON MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST...ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. AS THE WAVE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN VA IT WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH. ONLY THE LATEST NAM DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE MORE THAN THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF. FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT. THE END RESULT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST MON...MAINLY SC...INCREASING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY DAMP BUT WITH BARELY A TRACE OF PRECIP AS OPPOSED TO THE FEW WHO SEE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUE AS COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THOUGH THERE IS A SUBTLE HINT OF RIDGING ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK 5H TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP DRY THE AREA OUT. HIGHS END UP ABOVE CLIMO...LOW 60S DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT...BUT DO EXPECT SOME COMPONENT. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL RIDE BY JUST NORTH AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS WED AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A FEW HOURS WHERE RH INCREASES UP OVER 80 PERCENT AROUND 10K FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE WHILE A W-SW FLOW WILL EXIST ALOFT. COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH PCP WATER VALUES RUNNING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SOUNDING DATA...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCKED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE H4. OVERALL EXPECT DECENT WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPS REACHING AROUND 60. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH FRI...AN ON SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY TRANSLATE INTO SOME LOWER CLOUDS ON FRI. BY SATURDAY HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKENS WHILE A GULF COAST LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THIS LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST FROM FLORIDA IT WILL BRUSH THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. MODELS DIFFER IN TERMS OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. GFS BEING FASTEST AND DEEPEST BRINGING THE LOW UP BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENS A LOW OFF THE COAST ON MON. CMC IS IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WILL PUT LOW END POPS IN FORECAST BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN JUST ABOVE CLIMO WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY RUN COOLER IF CLOUDS AND PCP COME EARLIER. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 23Z...POST FRONTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO SC. ALL TERMINALS ARE AT IFR IN CEILINGS AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. LIKE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WHERE THE MODELS WANT TO BRING THE CEILINGS UP TO MVFR FAIRLY QUICKLY...I WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS IFR THROUGH 04Z AND THEN BRING UP TO MVFR AFTER THAT. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE DEWPOINTS...IF THEY DROP TO THE POINT WHERE THE SPREAD BECOMES FAIRLY LARGE...CEILINGS WILL HAVE TO COME UP. WINDS ARE GUSTING AT CRE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ON TOP OF THEM..EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE WITH FROPA AROUND 00Z. WINDS HAVE STOPPED GUSTING AT FLO AS FROPA HAS OCCURRED. WILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO FOR MYR AS THE FRONT PASSES THERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. HAVE RAISED CEILINGS AND VSBY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW FRONT DROPPING FURTHER SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY. WILL ALSO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AS WELL OVER THE TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MORNING FOG FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...SCEC TO REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH...HAVING REACHED THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. NE WINDS HAVE AND/OR WILL STABILIZE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AND STABILIZE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. WATERS SHADOWED BY LAND...SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...WILL OBSERVE LOWER SIG. SEAS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...15 TO 20 KT NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL QUICKLY DROP TO AROUND 10 KT AS PINCHED GRADIENT RELAXES. DECREASE IN WINDS WILL ALLOW 3 TO 4 FT SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO DROP INTO THE 3 FT RANGE AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY. 10 KT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY BUMP IN SPEEDS OCCURRING MON NIGHT. WEAK WAVE WILL PASS EAST OF THE WATERS...WITH A SLIGHT PINCH IN THE GRADIENT. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR A PERIOD AS IT PASSES...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MON NIGHT CONTINUE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN WILL PROCEED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS NO MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH WEAKENS AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RUN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS BUT MODELS DIFFER IN TERMS OF TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SEAS WILL BUILD SOME TIME OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MAC
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
