000
FXUS62 KILM 241546
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1048 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing offshore this morning, will move further
away from the area this aftn allowing dry high pressure to
dominate tonight into Saturday. A dry cold frontal passage will
occur Saturday night followed by modified Canadian high pressure
Sunday through the early to mid-week period of next week.
Temperatures up to this point in time will run near the climo
norms for this time of the year. A milder trend will occur late
next week as high pressure moves offshore and low pressure
approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...Gradually weakening southern stream wave,
currently along the eastern Gulf Coast, will continue to lift
northeast today, passing off the coast overnight. As the feature
lifts northeast it will push the stalled front, associated
surface waves, and deep moisture plume farther away from the
area. Clouds will linger along the coast through midday, in vary
degrees, before starting to thin out by early afternoon. Inland
areas will remain mostly cloud free today. Surface flow will be
from the north-northeast as elongated high pressure to the west
slides east. This will keep temps a little cooler than 850
temps around 9C and abundant sunshine would suggest. Highs will
end up right around 60 for most areas. Minimal changes this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Overall longwave pattern aloft not to
change much this period. This pattern includes low amplitude
upper troffing affecting the U.S. east of the Mississippi River
Valley and low to mid amplified upper ridging west of the
Mississippi to the Pacific Coast. Main storm tracks to remain
across Canada with occasional lows traversing along the US-
Canada border ie. across the Great Lakes and the NE States.

Looking at a quiet weekend weather-wise. The only highlight
will be a cold frontal passage slated for late Sat evening into
the pre-dawn Sun hrs before moving off the Carolina Coasts
altogether by daybreak Sun. The low attached to this lengthy
cold front will be in Eastern Canada at the time of this CFP.
With the cold front well displaced from the dynamics associated
with the low, will have to turn to it`s own frontal dynamics as
the primary forcing, which will be enough for cloudiness, but
just too weak for any pcpn development. With no tapping of any
major moisture source pools, ie. Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic
Waters, will have to rely on the moisture accompanying the cold
front. And this moisture will be quite limited especially after
it crosses the Appalachians where scouring will occur due to the
downslope trajectories. With all this said, have kept POPs null
and void thruout this fcst period which includes the CFP. Skies
in general this period will be mostly clear/sunny with partly
or variably cloudy skies during the CFP Sat night or early Sun.
Temperatures thruout this period will run near climo norms. Not
all that dramatic with this CFP, not much in the way of CAA but
more in the way of wind direction changes and drier air influx
ie. lower dewpoints with much of that having to do with the
downslope wind action.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 228 PM Thursday...Intrusion of Canadian high pressure to
dominate the first half of the extended period, remaining
exceptionally dry through Monday, although winds do ease Monday
as the surface high centers over the area. Monday morning will
be the chilliest portion of this period, with widespread 30s and
sub-freezing air over parts of the interior. Tuesday through
Thursday look for warming trend, as return wind flow becomes
established, with a gradual amplification of a short-wave
ridge over the area. The moisture return will bring slight
rain chances WED/THU days 6/7. No Arctic air or severe weather
signatures noted on the horizon at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 12Z...Mid and high clouds will hug the coast through the
afternoon hours as a weak jet max exits the region. Convective debris
off of Florida should keep our coast in the clouds. The winds will
be brisk out of the northeast, with it feeling more like a January day.
Skies should scatter along the coast by early evening. Light winds
through the overnight hours. Return flow expected to commence
tomorrow afternoon, with westerly winds expected Saturday morning.

Extended Outlook...Possible showers along the coast Saturday
night, otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...Small craft advisory remains unchanged
as pinched gradient between elongated high to the west and
front/surface waves to the east is keeping northeast winds
around 20 kt this morning. The gradient should start to relax
by midday as the front is pushed farther east and the high
builds in. Winds will start decreasing around midday, dropping
to around 15 kt for the afternoon. Seas, currently 3 to 6 ft,
will follow winds, trending below sca thresholds in the mid to
late afternoon.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Overall, this weekend will not be too bad
for mariners. Do not expect any pcpn. Will see a cold front
move off the mainland Carolinas late Saturday night and well
offshore Sun morning. Some clouds associated with the front but
no pcpn.

The sfc pg will tighten-some ahead of the cold front during
Sat with winds becoming westerly around 15 kt g20kt late in the
day and evening. Immediately after FROPA, winds will veer to
the NW 15 g20 kt then further veer to the North by morning at
15-20 kt. The sfc pg relaxes quickly Sun afternoon and night as
the center of high pressure approaches from the west, look for
wind speeds to drop to around 10 kt. Significant seas will
basically run 2 to 4 ft thruout this period. The seas may bump
up to a shortlived 3 to 5 ft after the CFP. After winds become
northerly and diminish to around 10 kt during Sun night, a
rather limited fetch will exist for seas to build upon under a
NW-N wind regime. This will result in seas subsiding to around 2
ft by daybreak Mon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 228 PM Thursday...Expect a vast improvement in marine
conditions as winds ease Monday into Tuesday. As a result, a
notable easing trend in sea heights as well, with 3-4 foot seas
Sunday, slowly subsiding to 1-2 feet into Tuesday. No TSTMS
expected on the 0-20 NM waters this period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion