Forecast Discussion For Sunset Beach And Brunswick County

000
FXUS62 KILM 030743
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
343 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE CAPE FEAR REGION. A SUNNY AND HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY IN WAKE
OF HURRICANE EARL...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL USHER
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE EARL...THE ILM CWA
WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT...A
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...ANY MOISTURE WITHIN
THE ATM COLUMN WILL SCOUR OUT. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY DAY TODAY
WITH SKIES VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE. ADIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN
MAXES THIS AFTERNOON REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S...EVEN ALONG THE
COAST. THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEARLY PINNED AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE ACTIVE W TO WNW WINDS RUNNING 15-25
KT THROUGH THE LOWER ATM COLUMN FROM JUST OFF THE SFC TO 700 MB.
MIN RH WILL DROP DOWN TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY 10-20 MPH WIND FIELD...A DRAMATIC
INCREASE TO FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. QUICK FLARE
UPS COULD RESULT SINCE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL OCCURRED FROM EARL.
BURNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ANOTHER DAY.

DECREASING SWELL IN THE WAKE OF EARL WILL RESULT IN BREAKERS THAT
DROP BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DUE TO FAVORABLE
OCEAN AND WIND CONDITIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC PG TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL SEE
ACTIVE SW TO W WINDS KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED WITH NO FOG
POSSIBILITIES. ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONT...MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS. NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE USED AS A 1ST GUESS FOR TONIGHTS
MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS SAT MORNING. WITH STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
MOISTURE LEFT WITH THIS FRONT ONCE IT REACHES THE COAST. EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS SAT MORNING BUT WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY PCP.
MODELS SHOWING LITTLE SPIKE IN PCP WATER UP TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BUT
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY NOON LEAVING PLENTY OF DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. 850 TEMPS WILL SPIKE UP NEAR 21
C FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DOWN NEAR 15 C THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PCP WATER WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH BY SAT EVENING
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
BE RUNNING AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID 80S DURING THE DAYS BUT WILL
BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND CALM WINDS
PROVIDING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS WRAP
AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY IN LOW LEVELS BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA...MAINLY
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME..BUT WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ONCE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE COAST MON
MORNING...RIDGE BUILDS IN MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK. H5
HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 595 DM BY TUES AFTN. THEREFORE EXPECT WARM AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN REACHING UP AROUND 90 OR ABOVE BY MID
WEEK. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH WED AS SURFACE HIGH HOLDS
ON BUT BY THURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE THURS INTO
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARL IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NO LONGER AN AVIATION FACTOR. NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
FRIDAY...A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY WITH WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODEST SFC PG AND MIXING FROM
ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATM COLUMN WITH PWS WELL BELOW AN INCH AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL PRODUCE A
CLOUD FREE DAY. A PINNED SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS AT THE
MYRTLES MUCH LATER IN THE DAY THEN A NORMAL SEA BREEZE DAY...AND
LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ILM TERMINAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SUCH A
DRY ATM PROFILE...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WITH EARL MOVING NORTHEAST...FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSHORE...W
TO NW...WHICH WILL AID IN KNOCKING SEAS DOWN AS WELL AS REMOVING
THE WASH MACHINE EFFECT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SW AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE
NEW WIND CHOP WILL COMBINE WITH A DIMINISHED EARL SWELL AND RESULT
IN SEAS DROPPING TO 3 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF TODAY AND BASICALLY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ACTIVE INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...EARL WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF NEW ENGLAND AS DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY SAT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME VERY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL SPIKE UP WITH SOUTHWEST PUSH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO NEAR
5 TO 6 FT EARLY SAT BUT WILL STEADILY DECREASE THEREAFTER...BEHIND
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BY
SAT AFTN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME ON SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR SEAS WILL
BE DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS BY SUN IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. OVERALL WILL SEE TRANQUIL SEAS BUT
DECENT ON SHORE PUSH WITH EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP WITH SEA BREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS BASICALLY 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion